TES Dispatch #4: Can Europe Defend Itself ? Pt. 2
Europe finally understands what time it is. A little late, but it's nice to see.
Can Europe Defend Itself? Pt. 1
Asleep at the Wheel
I’ve always squirmed at the ‘America is protecting Europe’ line of conversation.
When American colleagues would make these kinds of remarks around Europeans, implicitly or explicitly alluding to an ungrateful Europe, I found it rather uncouth. Too much rah rah USA! USA! jingoism for my taste.
But they had a point.
I’ve been at DEFCON 1 about European defense since 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea.
The invasion took place when my husband and I were on a weekend trip to Rovinj, Croatia (back when we were DINKs and did that kind of thing). Everyone was sitting at cafes, enjoying Aperol Spritzes in the sun, as if nothing alarming was happening.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I like sitting in the sun and drinking Aperol Spritzes. In fact, one of the reasons I’m still in Europe is because I too, love sitting in the sun drinking spritzes. But the barbarians were at the gates!
Later, when we got back Munich, I got into a wine-fueled discussion with some German friends. It was late, the wheels were coming off my spoken German, but I kept pressing them on why they weren’t concerned about Germany’s defenselessness should there be some kind of attack. All I got were shrugs and blank stares. They gently teased me for worrying about such things.
But I did worry about such things. In 2011, when Merkel’s government decided to end compulsory military service, I remember thinking ‘Why would they do this?’
And now here we are. I’m trying (and mostly failing) not to go on an ‘I told you so’ tour.
And this isn’t just about soldiers and tanks — it’s also about intelligence.
I recently learned that the German government only just allowed the BND (their equivalent of the CIA) to go on offense against Russian cyberattacks. I nearly fell out of my chair.
”These “totally absurd” restrictions do not apply in other countries, says Wolfgang Krieger, a historian who has written extensively on the bnd. They limit the trust placed in the bnd by partner agencies—and create vulnerabilities foes can exploit. “Putin has no rules, and we respond with our Rechtsstaat [constitutional state],” sighs Marc Henrichmann, an mp on the Bundestag’s intelligence-oversight panel...An early draft of the bill leaked to German media suggests that the bnd’s new powers will include the right to conduct offensive operations, including “hack-back” cyber-attacks on adversaries, and to infiltrate private tech companies. It will be given greater powers to grab and review data from internet exchanges (de-cix, one of the world’s largest, is based in Frankfurt); will be able to store it for longer; and will have access to the content of messages, not just their metadata.”
‘Can you believe it!’ I railed to my husband ‘They haven’t been doing this the WHOLE time!!!!’
He shrugged, “Germany has it’s history.”
“Yeah, but it’s 2026, not 1951!!”
There is a legitimate argument to be made and discussion to be had about the growing surveillance state all over the world. To be honest, I’m torn on this issue. But right now we are being hit by wave after wave of Russian cyber attacks and we have to do something. I’ve found this total lack of alarm on the part of some European states bewildering.
The Blessing of Trump
You read that sub-headline correctly.
Generally I’m not someone who goes around raging about Trump all the time. It’s exhausting and dispiriting. But l detest him. The way he exacerbates the polarization between the American people and loots the country is disgusting.
BUT.
There is some Glück im Unglück (luck in bad luck) as the Germans say. During his first term, a German friend asked to me to name one good thing Trump did. That was easy: He made Europe start taking its defense seriously.
Sometimes bad things lead to good outcomes.
I have started to call him ‘Trump the Destroyer, Forcer of Change’. As much as I’ve hated the obnoxious ‘You don’t have the cards’ incident and the insane Greenland threats (which aren’t over, by the way) they have FORCED Europe to get it’s ass in gear when it comes to it’s defense (finally).
If anything good comes out of the disastrous Iran war it will be that Europe and other countries start doubling down on energy resilience and security (read: solar, wind, nuclear and geothermal). None of this is what he intended, and yet, it could all be for the good.
Waking Up
And now, the Americans are gone. In fact, worse than gone.
From Ready or Not We Fight, on Minna Ålender's excellent Northern Flank Notes:
The ongoing US withdrawal from Europe, and especially expressions of hostile intentions by the current administration towards NATO allies, pose a significant dilemma for the defence of Northern Europe. The Nordic countries have hitherto prepared to hold the line until allied (i.e. American) reinforcements arrive. But now it looks increasingly evident that Europeans are on their own and no such reinforcements will arrive from North America, apart from whatever Canada can contribute. That radically changes the way defence in a possible conflict with Russia is planned, especially in the Arctic and North Atlantic.
If this post were a movie, this would be the part where things look bleak for our heroes, but they come up with a plan, someone says ‘let’s do this thing!’ and determined background music starts playing.
Military start ups are springing up all across Europe, several EU countries are starting DARPA like initiatives and there is lots of EU funding for defense. The EU has appointed a capable defense minister, Andrius Kubilius.
Reuten noted that Andrius Kubilius, the EU Defence Commissioner (a new position only created two years ago), has been a breath of fresh air in the von der Leyen commission for being honest about what Europe needs to do and who is standing in the way of it. “I said to Commissioner Kubilius, ‘you are definitely not the problem, we are not the problem, it’s the member states that are the problem’,” he said, adding that the national governments currently have a myopic focus on just increasing spending (on US military equipment) while still keeping Europe reliant on American command and control for military protection. “You cannot spend your way out of a defence gap. You need a mentality change.”
Amen, Andrius, Amen.
There is a long way to go, but European Leaders are dusting off, and scrutinizing Article 42.7 from the Lisbon Treaty. Groping their way towards some sort of coherent European command structure.
In this context, some European leaders have started to point towards the EU’s Article 42.7 as an alternative mutual defence pact. Specifically, the law states that “If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power”. As a legal instrument, it has much to be admired. Indeed, on paper it is actually stronger than NATO’s famous Article 5, which is more ambiguous about whether and to what extent allies need to come to each other’s aid.
All of this should have happened in 2014. But at least we’re finally getting started.
Cultural Artefact: The Baltic Way
Despite all this military talk, I actually believe the most powerful form of resistance is non-violent protest—ideally, backed up by a credible defense capability as a deterrent. One of the most beautiful examples of civil protest is the Baltic Way, which took place 36 years ago during the 1989 revolutions in Europe. Two million everyday people created a human chain connecting the Baltic capitals (Tallinn, Riga, and Vilnius) to assert their desire for independence from the Soviet Union and show a shared solidarity among their peoples.
Meme of the week: Monty's Dog Beach
Is this not the most European thing you’ve ever seen? I’m writing this from our Pfingsten holiday in Croatia. It’s unbelievably dog-friendly here. You can take your dog to Monty’s Dog Beach, a franchise with locations in Croatia, Slovenia, and Long Beach, California. On offer are dog ice cream, dog beer, and apparently silly dog contests.
