TES Dispatch #3: Can Europe Defend Itself ? Pt. 1
It's about more than just guns, soldiers and money.
I wanted to write this in one short post, but it’s become so sprawling I’m breaking it into three parts, even though there is an emerging military crisis as I write this.
This first post is about the root of the challenge: not weapons or strategy, but the lack of a European command structure.
Can the Europeans 'get it together'?
Years ago, I somehow found myself at an ad hoc fundraiser for John Kerry. It was at a very swanky apartment in Schwabing. The fundraising guest of honor was former Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who was on her way back to Washington DC, from the IAEA General Conference in Vienna. We were desperate to vote George Bush out of office (ah, the good old days!)
I don’t remember the context, but someone asked about Europe’s contribution to some effort, and Albright quickly and casually dismissed the suggestion with a wave of her hand, “No. The Europeans will never get it together.”
That’s kinda rude, I thought.
But now that I pay more attention to European politics, it’s hard not to see what she meant. And when it comes to Europe organizing itself as a whole militarily, the struggle to “get it together” can be seen in stark relief.
Sure, there are challenges with neglected militaries and weaponry, but the biggest issue is the leadership vacuum.
The US has historically provided the critical military command structure for Europe through NATO. Basically, Europe is a bunch of squabbling siblings, and up until now, the US was the parent that would get everyone in line so they could stop bickering and just get in the car.
From The Economist:
Most military coalitions look like a primary-school music practice: each country turns up, bangs its drum roughly in time with the others, and leaves. NATO, by contrast, was set up as a symphony orchestra controlled by a single conductor, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), an American general who also commands America’s forces in Europe… staffed with thousands of personnel ready to respond the moment a war starts. “US leadership is the glue that holds the alliance together,” says Luis Simón, the director of the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy at the Free University of Brussels.
This leaves what RUSI calls Europe’s “Security Architecture Spaghetti.” Without American leadership, Europe is scrambling to organize itself. You can start to see the broad outlines of what this might look like: regional groupings of coordinated forces—Scandinavia and the Baltics and the E3 (UK, France, Germany).
European security is likely to continue to evolve as a tangle of national, minilateral, and multilateral formats. There is, thus, an urgent need to establish a key political center that can coordinate across these various formats and leverage collective European responses. The E3 is fast evolving as a mechanism bringing together the largest European states while offering the flexibility to connect to other actors (Ukraine) and other minilateral formats, as well as coordinating positions and creating political leadership across and within NATO and the EU… Europe can then begin to reverse its marginalization at this critical moment.
Responsibility Diffusion
This disorganization can be seen right down to the local level. Last year, during Oktoberfest, menacing unidentified drones hovered over Munich Airport, causing delays, chaos, and confusion.
It prompted me to attend this event (in English: Resilience Exchange: Secure the Grid – Strategic Defense Innovation for Critical Infrastructure), held at the (also swanky) Bavarian Chamber of Commerce. The head of security from Munich Airport was a panelist, as was the head of the Bavarian State Ministry of the Interior, for Sport and Integration, along with other political officials, and defense industry types.
It was eye-opening.
The airport drone was, of course, a hot topic. The term Verantwortungsdiffusion (responsibility diffusion) kept being used. No one knew who was supposed to do what. Was it airport security? The local Munich police? Bavarian state police? The German federal police? The conversation got quite heated.
Watching all of this, all I could think was: We’re f***ed.
Eventually, police helicopters and searches were launched, but the drones moved away before they could be identified or intercepted. This was a fire drill—and an expensive one at that.
The good news is there are now laser-based drone detection systems at the airport, and the German Aviation Security Act was amended earlier this year to push Germany toward a faster, more centralized anti-drone response, with better detection technology and stronger legal powers for police.
But this is a reactive, patchwork response in just one EU country. Not a coordinated EU-level game plan to respond to this increasingly frequent occurrence at scale.
You can throw all the money you want at Helsing, Stark, and Destinus, but without a clear chain of command, it won’t matter. As the Ukrainians have brutally illustrated in war games, where they’ve decisively destroyed NATO forces.
The Europeans have to get it together because, whether we like it or not, we’re already at war.
Cultural Artefact: Pentecost Treats
In some parts of Europe the Pentecost Holiday starts on Monday (called Pfingsten here in Bavaria). In Sweden they celebrate with Pingstbullar or Kardemummabullar, a yummy looking cardamom bun. Here's a recipe from Gimme Some Oven.
Meme of the week: A European Army
Why peace-loving Europe needs it's own Army.
