FAFO: Merz Should Call Trump's Bluff

You may have heard Trump has threatened to remove 5,000 troops from Germany because Friedrich Merz simply said the truth out loud when speaking to a group of German school students.

Fine, good. You wanna go? Then go.

That needs to be the attitude coming from Europe. Does anyone believe for a second that the US would activate troops here if we were attacked? Of course not.

Merz and others taking a stand might have a knock-on effect of stiffening other EU leader spines. Meloni, Trumps former BFF is halfway there already! And finally it would take back important political ground from the far right, which is winning on this issue.

From Dave Keating:

The AfD has always believed that the US military occupation constitutes a violation of German sovereignty. On this, I agree with them. And right now, they are showing more moral courage in standing up to Trump than the county’s centre-right chancellor or the EU’s centre-right president. Merz right now looks like he’s flailing... Now, as it becomes clear the war he initially supported is becoming a global disaster that will plunge Europe into a crisis, he’s trying to wash his hands of it. Last week he said the US is pursuing a “massive escalation” in the conflict rather than trying to end it. Yesterday he said that the coming crisis for Europe as a result of the war will be “a burden on Germany and Europe, as heavy as we recently experienced during the COVID pandemic or at the start of the Ukraine War.” Then why, chancellor, did you support the war?

And besides, right now the US needs German military bases

From The Guardian:

Defence analysts, opposition Democrats and even some members of Trump’s own Republican party see a strong US military presence in Europe as a vital part of the country’s global military reach, with major troop withdrawals or base closures, particularly in Germany, likely to end up costing billions of dollars and significantly reducing Washington’s capacity to mount operations around the world.

From Politico LOL:

President Donald Trump’s announcement Wednesday that he was considering pulling some U.S. troops out of Germany stunned [US] defense officials, who scrambled to figure out if the president was serious about following through on his threats this time. Trump’s social media post was the first that many had heard of a potential new push to take hundreds, if not thousands, of American troops out of Germany, according to three defense officials. It strongly contrasts with a recently concluded monthslong review of the Pentagon’s global troop footprint, which did not call for major pullbacks from Europe...Trump’s comments also came as Army Secretary Dan Driscoll wrapped up a two-day trip to German training ranges this week to underscore the U.S. presence in the country.

Even New York Times commenters are unimpressed

Local Defense tech influencers are also saying Auf Widersehen:

From Perplexity:

Not having specifically German-owned military bases would severely limit Germany's ability to contribute meaningfully to a war effort in Iran.

Germany lacks permanent, sovereign bases near Iran and relies on multinational sites in Jordan (Al-Azraq), Iraq (e.g., Erbil, Taji), and shared NATO facilities, which provide staging but are not under full Bundeswehr control. Without these allied bases, the Bundeswehr's power projection collapses due to no aircraft carriers, limited tanker fleet (A310 MRTT for refueling), and aircraft ranges insufficient for 3,000+ km strikes from Germany without forward stops. Germany's first permanent overseas base is in Lithuania (operational 2027), focused on NATO's eastern flank, leaving Middle East ops dependent on partners.

Impact on Operations

Absence of German-specific bases means no secure, dedicated logistics hubs, forcing reliance on US/NATO sites amid risks like Iranian missile strikes on Jordan/Iraq camps. Naval assets (frigates, subs) could stage from the Mediterranean but lack carrier projection to the Persian Gulf without base support. Current missions emphasize training/advisory roles, not independent combat projection.

The U.S. Military has a heavy reliance on Rammstein for air coordination. The plan B would be relying on Italy (not looking so good) and the UK (maybe).

So, good idea genius.

Speaking of Rammstein, this feels like appropriate to trot out of deep storage: